Background to the BMBF's Foresight Process

Technology foresight processes have a long tradition at the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. For over 15 years, the BMBF has been initiating processes whose methods are adapted to the current state of the art of technology foresight. Despite the wide variety of approaches employed, the goal remains the same: Identifying future technologies and research areas and supporting the prioritization of German research and technology policy.

The project "Technology at the beginning of the 21st century" (1991-1992) can be described as the start of the BMBF's foresight processes. It employed the relevance tree method. The main results are a list of technologies and maps on technologies of the future which demonstrate for the first time that new technology topics are developing in particular at the interface between "classical" disciplines. Nanotechnology, for example, was identified as a future topic with a proximity to very diverse disciplines and could therefore be called a central topic.

The years 1992 and 1993 saw the first German Delphi Study on the Development of Science and Technology which was commissioned by the then Federal Ministry of Research and Technology (BMFT). The methods used in the study were based on the fifth Japanese Delphi Study; a German-Japanese comparison followed. The results from a total of 16 topic areas, ranging from energy to information and communication technology, were made available free of charge to all interested parties. German industry in particular was thus able to use the results for its strategic planning. Delphi '98 began in 1996 as a study on the global development of science and technology. Data was updated in this study and "typically German" topics put forward for discussion. The results were in great demand from all stakeholders in the German innovation system. Once again companies were the most frequent users, followed by the media. In view of the approaching turn of the millennium the reports met with great interest and were also used in schools.

In 2000, the BMBF launched the "research dialogue Futur" (2000-2005). In contrast to the Delphi Surveys, which were based on scientific expertise, this project worked with a large group of stakeholders from all areas of society to draw up research topics which could be included in concrete research funding measures. The results were four lead visions, some of which, including interdisciplinary topics, have been included in BMBF projects. For example, the lead vision "Understanding Thought Processes" provided a contribution to the founding of the National Bernstein Network for Computational Neuroscience.

September 2007 saw the launching of the BMBF's latest foresight process focusing on expertise in the field of research and technology. A consortium consisting of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (IAO) was commissioned to implement the process.

This foresight process combines foresight and monitoring in an integrated approach. In order to look into the future, it takes into account existing experience from foresight approaches, including well-known research strategies, and other methods from the field of innovation research as well as new, creative methods. The BMBF's new Foresight Process also involves personal dialogues with national and international experts and decision-makers. In particular, it aims for cooperation with national research organizations and other institutional stakeholders and processes in the field of futures studies and innovation research. The procedure is rounded off with a look back from the future and the drafting of recommendations for action from today's point of view.